Green Hydrogen: What Morocco’s Choice Implies

In the realm of green hydrogen, Morocco has made its choice. A deliberate choice, with significant geostrategic implications. What some saw as a delayed start was, in fact, a period of observation to better define its objectives. And indeed, time has proven it right.

After the initial euphoria, reality has set in. The proof: Out of more than 830 projects announced between 2020 and 2023, according to some studies, barely 7 to 9% have reached an advanced stage today. Thus, as the “H2V fever” subsides, along with its most ambitious applications, Morocco is building its own value chain not around gas or e-fuels in their many forms, but more precisely around ammonia and, secondarily, green steel.

In other words, to start relatively modestly compared to already highly advanced countries like China, Chile, India, and even Australia—not to mention certain Gulf countries—in order to grow progressively, with the goal of eventually becoming a regional energy hub.

Counting Morocco, but also Egypt and Namibia, and even Tunisia and Mauritania, just in the African region, a new global energy map is already taking shape before our eyes.

Far from hydrocarbon exporting zones. And according to energy sector specialists, supply corridors are already being designed. In the Asian zone, giant maritime routes are planned between Australia, Japan, and South Korea.

In Europe, pipelines are being converted or built to transport green ammonia from North African ports. Elsewhere, specialized terminals in Chile and Namibia are being set up to ship compressed hydrogen to Germany, the Netherlands, and other European countries.

This is a new reality that entails security-related changes. “History teaches us that every energy revolution is accompanied by a military reorganization,” it is noted. Green hydrogen should be no exception.

And attentive observers will have noted that in recent years, the Kingdom has undertaken to modernize and strengthen its maritime defense system, aimed at securing its coasts, deep waters, and port facilities. Recent acquisitions, among other examples, of patrol vessels, new helicopters, drones, and underwater electronic defense systems fall within this framework.

On another front, between becoming an energy supplier or an energy sovereign nation, the Kingdom has also made its choice. Again, history has shown: while some oil-producing countries have settled for remaining exporters of crude, and thus natural resources, others have managed to build a strong, diversified economy.

An Energy Nation

Morocco, not wanting to become a primary exporter—a capacity it likely already possesses—chooses to take the time to equip itself with the necessary means to control, at least in large part, the production, technology, distribution, and revenues of green hydrogen.

Through strong international partnerships, it tests the most promising electrolyzer technologies, hosts renewable energy industries—particularly wind power—and begins the transformation and valorization of gas (into ammonia, green steel, etc.), while managing the intermittency constraints of renewable energy through the use of BESS, batteries produced locally.

Most importantly, there is full involvement of local operators in the value chain: OCP and Nareva initially, and upstream in R&D, notably through work carried out by UM6P and, later, by certain public university institutions. In this sense, and this is just one example, InnovX’s subsidiary, HydroJeel, developed a comprehensive hydrogen platform for the OCP group in Jorf Lasfar.

In parallel, the Institute for Research in Solar Energy and New Energies (IRESEN), UM6P, and the OCP group launched another large-scale technological platform in 2022: Green H2A.

“This infrastructure, a first on the African scale, aims to play a major role in the industrial deployment of the green hydrogen sector and its applications in Morocco. It will allow for the investigation, testing, demonstration, adaptation to the local context, and scaling of innovative technologies in this promising future sector,” stated the project initiators.

Change of Scale

Meanwhile, the Morocco Offer has been rolled out, with some projects already launched and others still under study. Today, the eight projects currently underway—including the Chbika project (which has completed the pre-FEED phase and is moving to the next FEED phase), the OCP program in Jorf Lasfar and Tarfaya, and six others in the pre-FEED phase—represent a total investment of 319 billion dirhams and are focused on the production of green ammonia, primarily to meet the needs of the national industry but also for export.

There has been much uncertainty, that is a fact. This has not prevented Morocco from heading straight to the goal: producing the hydrogen molecule and its derivatives, with the entire value chain, without further delay, as recently emphasized by the Minister of Industry and Trade, Ryad Mezzour. In doing so, this time on the economic front, it is undergoing a change of scale.

It is clear: the Kingdom does not intend to play a minor role on the new global energy map. To recall, when Morocco launched the automotive ecosystem—a similar adventure in many respects—the largest investments were counted in billions of dirhams; the partnership signed with Renault in 2016 involved an investment of 10 billion dirhams (900 million euros).

Today, the initial investment in the H2V sector is counted in billions of dollars (hundreds of billions of dirhams). The total of the six investments announced in H2V, in the phase of signing preliminary land reservation contracts, is on the order of 32.5 billion dollars. We are already starting with an electrolysis capacity of 13 to 16 gigawatts, if not more, considering that the investment required to produce one gigawatt of green hydrogen is estimated between 2 and 2.5 billion dollars.

For a sense of scale, most projects currently developed worldwide revolve around 2 GW (not counting ongoing Chinese projects; in Chile, with its 70 launched projects, the goal is 10 GW by the end of 2025).

Another key indicator: each gigawatt of green hydrogen capacity enables the creation of 35,000 to 40,000 direct, indirect, and induced jobs. With its goal of 200 GW by 2040, Morocco plans to create no less than 4 million jobs in the sector.

In the shorter term, the Kingdom aims for an installed capacity of 30 GW by 2030. This already represents an investment volume of over 100 billion dollars (which should generate at least 1 million jobs).

New Allies

This is therefore a multiple challenge for the Kingdom. First, entering the energy sector, with its economic benefits especially in terms of employment, while strengthening its food sovereignty through fertilizer production and decarbonizing its phosphate industry and part of its industry overall.

All while partially meeting Europe’s needs, estimated at 20 million tons by 2050, half of which will be imported. Morocco, and this is an obvious fact that escapes no one, is already positioning itself, through several initiatives, as a significant energy hub particularly for the EU.

The sector is also an opportunity to strengthen and accelerate industrial integration projects with certain allied countries, notably the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia, with which it has just signed an investment protection agreement and which has expressed interest in cooperation in renewable energy, green hydrogen, the phosphate industry, among others.

Note in this regard that Saudi Arabia is one of the few countries that has already embarked on green hydrogen production with a project, NEOM, involving 2 gigawatts of electrolyzers (an investment of 8.4 billion dollars). An exchange of data in this area is likely to accelerate the development of this sector in both countries.

In short, note that in addition to the six projects already underway, validated by the Steering Committee, no fewer than 50 project proposals have been submitted for review to this body. This number is already a sign of the success of Morocco’s approach.

An approach that can be summarized in two aspects. First, progressivity in terms of outputs—ammonia to start, and later, other derivatives such as synthetic fuel, methanol, and kerosene.

Second, for securing investments, the state mobilizes land, provides investors with shared infrastructure for transport, energy, and water, and above all offers a legislative framework that is clear, secure, and incentive-based.

What must be remembered is that, according to the International Energy Agency, in 2023, the world produced nearly 180,000 tons of green hydrogen. According to projections, this figure could exceed 100 million tons per year by 2030.

The projected market value exceeds one trillion dollars. By 2050, it could reach 1.4 trillion dollars per year. It is no longer a question of an environmental niche, but a true geopolitical challenge. A challenge in which Morocco aims to play a major role.

Morocco-Saudi Arabia, a Winning Duo

The model built by ACWA Power in NEOM is interesting for Morocco in several respects. It is a case study. It shows that for competitive green hydrogen production, 4 GW of renewable energy must be planned to ensure 24/7 continuous operation for 2 GW of electrolyzers.

At the Moroccan scale, with the target of 30 GW of electrolyzers in the long term, approximately 60 GW of renewable energy must be deployed. Studies show that in Morocco’s case, to achieve this capacity optimally, a mix of 70% wind and 30% solar is required, meaning 42 GW and 18 GW respectively.

Furthermore, according to estimates, the necessary technical land areas (less than 6,000 km² for wind and less than 800 km² for solar) remain modest compared to the national potential, estimated at approximately 15,000 km² for wind and 100,000 km² for photovoltaics.

Recall in this regard that under the Morocco Offer, the state has already identified one million hectares (10,000 km²) of public land, dedicated, accessible, and with high potential for green hydrogen production.

This land is already covered by decrees from the Ministry of Energy. And as everyone knows, a first phase will make 300,000 hectares available.