AfDB Forecasts 4.2% Economic Growth in Morocco

The African Development Bank (AfDB) forecasts growth of 4.2% for the Moroccan economy in 2026. This is one of the key takeaways from its annual report on African Economic Outlook, published during the institution’s Annual Meetings, which are being held until May 29 in Brazzaville.This momentum is mainly driven by household consumption and investment in infrastructure. Agriculture, manufacturing, construction, and tourism are identified as the main engines of this growth.

Inflation under control

On the price front, the AfDB remains reassuring: inflation is expected to stay contained at 2.4% in 2026 and 2.3% in 2027—levels considered consistent with the country’s macroeconomic stability.

Shifting deficits

The picture is more nuanced regarding fiscal and external balances. The current account deficit is expected to widen to 3.5% of GDP in 2026 before slightly narrowing to 3.4% in 2027. Meanwhile, the budget deficit is projected to continue its downward trajectory, falling from 3.7% of GDP in 2026 to 3.2% in 2027.

Morocco, a key player in African financial markets

The report also highlights the rise of African stock markets over the past two decades, with combined activity reaching $1.2 trillion. Morocco ranks among the most active financial centres on the continent, alongside Egypt and South Africa.

Risks not to be overlooked

The AfDB also points to risk factors, particularly disruptions to maritime traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, which could affect regional exports, increase the cost of agricultural inputs, and raise the energy bill for oil-importing countries. In the face of these uncertainties, the institution recommends proactive climate risk management and diversification of trade partnerships to safeguard growth prospects.