Economy: Signals Are Broadly Positive

Solid growth, but persistent challenges. This is essentially the diagnosis outlined by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) following its Article IV consultations and the mid-term review of the flexible credit line extended to Morocco.

In an uncertain global environment, the national economy continues to show notable resilience, even though room for maneuver remains constrained.

The Bretton Woods institution anticipates real GDP growth of 4.4% in 2026, then 4.5% in 2027, before stabilizing around 4% in the medium term.

A trajectory slightly below 2025 performance (4.9%), driven by the rebound in agricultural output and the acceleration of major infrastructure projects.

“Morocco’s economy continues to demonstrate strong resilience,” says Kenji Okamura, Deputy Managing Director and Chairman of the IMF’s Board of Directors, highlighting the driving role of agriculture, construction, and tourism.

However, these projections remain more cautious than those of Bank Al-Maghrib, which expects growth of 5.6% in 2026 followed by a slowdown to 3.5% in 2027. The central bank anticipates, in particular, a strong rebound in agricultural value added (+14.4%) thanks to an estimated grain harvest of 82 million quintals, before returning to more normal levels the following year.

Inflation under control despite the “oil shock”

On the price front, the IMF foresees moderate inflation at 1.6% in 2026, versus 0.8% in 2025, before a gradual return toward 2% in the medium term. This evolution is mainly tied to tensions in energy markets within a tense geopolitical context.

As a true barometer of inflation, oil experiences extreme volatility due to tensions between Iran and the United States. The Brent crude price surged by more than 40%, briefly exceeding the 100 to 120-dollar range, after previously trading between 75 and 80 dollars.

After this peak, prices retreat slightly below 100 dollars, as geopolitical signals ease. The French institute IFP Energies Nouvelles (IFPEN) does not rule out a rise toward 130 dollars in May if instability persists. Despite this context, inflation is expected to remain contained in Morocco.

Bank Al-Maghrib thus projects 0.8% in 2026 and 1.4% in 2027. This containment has led the central bank to keep its policy rate at 2.25% at its 17 March meeting.

Strengthened budgetary margins

Public finances signals are broadly positive. Fueled by corporate income tax and VAT, as well as by widening the tax base, revenues reached a record level of over 342 billion dirhams in 2025, up 14.7%. This performance was welcomed by the IMF, which helped limit the budget deficit to 3.5% of GDP.

The deficit should remain broadly under control around 3.4% in 2026, before a gradual reduction toward 2031. Meanwhile, the Treasury’s debt would begin a downward trajectory, from 67.1% to 60.5% of GDP.

A trend confirmed by BAM, which projects a budget deficit of 3.5% this year, then 3.4% in 2027, while noting a 15.3% rise in ordinary revenues driven by a marked increase in tax receipts. “Continuing revenue performance, coupled with a re-prioritization of spending, would create room for priority social expenditures and accelerate the rebuilding of budgetary buffers,” the IMF notes.

Stimulating job creation

One major challenge remains employment. The unemployment rate stood at 13% in 2025 according to the High Commission for Planning, a still-high level despite a slight improvement. The IMF projects a gradual decline to 12.3% in 2026 and 11.4% in 2027.

To speed this decline, the institution calls for stronger investment in human capital and a dynamization of the private sector. “Sustainable job creation remains a pressing priority and requires a more dynamic private sector, leveling the playing field between public and private entities, and new labor market reforms,” it stresses.

Kenji Okamura believes Morocco continues to meet the eligibility criteria for the modular credit line granted in April 2025, a precautionary instrument that testifies to the credibility of its economic policies.

In a world context that remains uncertain, the IMF recommends maintaining prudent macroeconomic policies, strengthening the management of budgetary risks, and accelerating structural reforms. Objective: translate resilience into sustainable and inclusive growth.

FY 2026 PLF: A slightly more optimistic growth

According to the 2026 Finance Law, economic growth is expected to reach 4.6%, a level slightly higher than IMF projections.

This momentum would be driven by an estimated grain harvest of 70 million quintals and by the continuation of major structural projects. Non-agricultural GDP would grow by 4.3%, with notable contributions from the secondary (3.7%) and tertiary (4.2%) sectors.