Cereals: Who are the suppliers to the Kingdom?

The rainfall deficit continues to severely impact cereal harvests. While heavy rainfall in March-April alleviated water stress across multiple cities, its effect on the current agricultural season’s yield remains limited.

In a 23 July report, FAO’s Global Information and Early Warning System (GIEWS) projects cereal production at 4 million tonnes.

The UN agency notes cumulative rainfall from December 2024-February 2025 was over 60% below long-term averages in key agricultural regions: Fès-Boulemane, Gharb, Greater Casablanca, and Tanger-Tétouan.

This figure aligns with both the Agriculture Ministry’s announcement at SIAM 2025 and the June 2025 economic outlook report from the Directorate of Financial Studies and Forecasts (DEPF).

Despite representing a 41% increase from the 31.2 million quintals (over 3 million tonnes) harvested in 2023-2024, the anticipated yield still marks a 27% decline compared to the 5.5 million tonnes recorded in 2022-2023.

This substantial shortfall will inevitably necessitate heavy reliance on imports to bridge the deficit.

Nearly 10 million tonnes purchased between 2024-2025

According to FAO projections, Morocco is expected to import 11 million tonnes during the 2025-2026 marketing year (July-June), representing over 20% above the historical average.

To identify potential suppliers to the Kingdom, we analyzed primary sourcing regions from the previous marketing year, particularly during the first half of 2025.

Data from the National Federation of Cereal and Legume Traders (FNCL), compiled by our team, shows operators procured 9.85 million tonnes of cereals (soft wheat, corn, durum wheat, and barley) on international markets between June 1, 2024-May 31, 2025. This marks a 2% increase compared to the 9.64 million tonnes received at Moroccan ports during the 2023/2024 marketing year.

These import figures align with data from the National Interprofessional Office for Cereals and Legumes (ONICL). Let’s first examine soft wheat volumes – this prized “brown gold” essential for bread production and bakery goods.

Traders imported 4.94 million tonnes (5.12 million tonnes according to ONICL data) during this period from fourteen suppliers, an 8% increase from the 4.59 million tonnes (4.85 million per ONICL) purchased between June 2023-May 2024.

These imports aimed to offset domestic production deficits, with national output limited to 1.7 million tonnes at the end of the 2023-2024 season – a 41% decline from the 2.9 million tonnes harvested in 2022-2023.

France and Russia Lead in Soft Wheat Supplies

With a total volume of 1.49 million tonnes, France remained Morocco’s top supplier, followed by Russia (918,069 tonnes), Germany (542,763 tonnes), Bulgaria (479,679 tonnes), and Latvia (445,992 tonnes).  

The Top 10 is completed by Lithuania (375,283 tonnes), Romania (270,990 tonnes), Ukraine (171,608 tonnes), Argentina (98,005 tonnes), and Poland (31,747 tonnes).  

A notable development is Russia’s resurgence – having ranked fifth in 2023 with only 217,043 tonnes. The world’s leading soft wheat producer/exporter gained significant momentum during H2 2024.  

With 816,773 tonnes shipped, Moscow surpassed France (498,200 tonnes) to claim top supplier status during this period, establishing a substantial 318,000-tonne lead.  

This Russian export surge stems from carefully orchestrated grain diplomacy. A commercial offensive marked by November 2023 negotiations with FNCL in Rabat to ease financial transactions for Moroccan traders, following SWIFT system restrictions on Russian banks.  

On 29 November 2024, Eduard Zernin (Chairman of Rusgrain Union – representing 37 Russian grain producers/exporters) signed a one-year memorandum of understanding with FNCL President Omar Yacoubi. Effective immediately, this partnership facilitates Russian grain exports to Morocco.

Slight Import Rebound in Q1 2025

Analysis of Moroccan imports during the first half of 5 reveals a significant 45% decline in Russian shipments to the Kingdom, totaling 115,292 tonnes – a sharp drop from 209,689 tonnes during the same period in 2024, when Moscow ranked third among suppliers.  

This downturn was particularly pronounced in Q2 2025, with only 41,397 tonnes exported compared to 73,895 tonnes between January-March 2025.  

This underperformance dropped Russia three positions in the rankings, now dominated by France (846,988 tonnes), followed by Germany (323,973 tonnes), Bulgaria (300,963 tonnes), Lithuania (299,815 tonnes), and Latvia (262,217 tonnes).  

The subsequent positions include Argentina (7th, 98,006 tonnes), United States (94,688 tonnes), Romania (91,400 tonnes), Sweden (27,004 tonnes), and Canada (19,907 tonnes).  

Overall, Moroccan traders purchased approximately 2.4 million tonnes during this period – a 2% decrease from the 2,459,738 tonnes imported in H1 2024. These volumes split between 1,132,594 tonnes in Q1 and 1,266,971 tonnes from March-May 2025.

Significant Surge in U.S. Purchases

A detailed analysis reveals sustained growth in French exports between Q1 and Q2, rising from 220,743 tonnes to 626,245 tonnes – a 183% surge. However, overall French sales to Rabat declined 42% during H1 2025 compared to the 1.47 million tonnes shipped in the same period last year.  

Moulay Abdelkader Alaoui, President of the National Milling Federation, explains: ‘Algerian importers reduced their French market engagement, where they previously purchased substantial volumes. This allowed Moroccan operators to secure more competitive wheat prices through freight proximity.’  

FNCL President Omar Yacoubi adds: ‘France offered the most advantageous quality-price ratio on the market.’  

Notably, U.S. exports to Morocco sharply increased despite Washington having shipped only 7,632 tonnes in H1 2024 and 21,120 tonnes in 2023. The price of American wheat recently fell by $50/tonne on the Chicago Board of Trade. While the 15-day maritime freight previously deterred Moroccan traders from U.S. sourcing, these competitive prices have renewed interest.  

Our source clarifies: ‘Importers are particularly acquiring Hard Spring Wheat – a high-protein variety optimal for quality adjustment through blending, primarily used in pastry production’.

Canada Consolidates Dominance in Durum Wheat Supply

Casablanca Port remains the primary entry point for soft wheat shipments, receiving 1,592,643 tonnes, followed by Agadir (326,840 tonnes), Jorf Lasfar (309,560 tonnes), Safi (199,558 tonnes), Nador (180,314 tonnes), and Tangier (27,400 tonnes).

Including July’s additional 236,750 tonnes, total imports reached 2.6 million tonnes – a 16% decline compared to the 3.1 million tonnes imported between January-July 2024.

Beyond soft wheat, Moroccan importers actively sourced durum wheat (used for pasta/semolina) during the previous marketing year, purchasing 1,072,905 tonnes – a 15% increase over 2023-2024 levels.

Canada maintained its position as Morocco’s top supplier with 1,024,532 tonnes exported, far surpassing Russia (27,499 tonnes), the United States (15,874 tonnes), and Spain (5,000 tonnes). Between January-July 2025, 825,789 tonnes were delivered to the Kingdom, marking a 24% decrease from the 667,265 tonnes imported during the same 2024 period.

Notably, domestic durum wheat production fell to 710,000 tonnes in 2023-2024 – a 35% decline from the 1.1 million tonnes harvested in 2022-2023.

French Barley and Brazilian Corn in High Demand

Following soft wheat and durum wheat, we examine barley imports—a dual-purpose cereal used for both human consumption and animal feed. Moroccan traders acquired 876,121 tonnes between June 2024 and May 2025, marking a 42% year-over-year decline. Leading suppliers included France (413,363 tonnes), Romania (112,651 tonnes), Germany (67,500 tonnes), Ukraine (65,154 tonnes), and Latvia (45,596 tonnes).

This imported volume supplemented the 660,000-ton domestic harvest from the previous season, representing a 49% decrease compared to the 1.3 million tonnes harvested in 2022–2023. Notably, January–July 2025 imports totaled 430,527 tonnes, reflecting a 58% decline from the 1,013,569 tonnes imported during the same period in 2024.

Morocco also intensified its engagement in the global corn market, purchasing 2,960,594 tonnes during the latest marketing year—a 14% increase over 2023–2024 volumes. Nearly half of these imports originated from Brazil (1.5 million tonnes), with the remainder sourced from Argentina (731,764 tonnes), the United States (692,620 tonnes), and Romania (20,201 tonnes). Corn imports between January and July 2025 rose by 12%, reaching 1.7 million tonnes.

Fixed Subsidies for Traders: Nearly 13 Billion Dirhams Between 2021 and 2025

To ensure consistent local market supply of soft wheat and stabilize flour prices, Morocco provides fixed subsidies on soft wheat imports. These subsidies offset the difference between the monthly average ex-port cost and a reference price of 270 dirhams (DH) per quintal (100 kg).

A December 25, 2024 circular from the National Interprofessional Office for Cereals and Legumes (ONICL) introduced a new subsidy reimbursement system for soft wheat imports, effective from January 1 to December 31, 2025. Data from the National Federation of Cereal and Legume Traders (FNCL) indicates total subsidies reached 258.6 million dirhams (MDH) by July 2025 (256 MDH between January and May 2025, per ONICL), with per-quintal subsidies ranging from 14.71 DH in January to 0.8 DH in May 2025. No subsidies were allocated for June, July, or August.

Omar Yacoubi explains, “This decline is due to falling global wheat prices, particularly in major Northern Hemisphere producers during harvest periods in key exporting countries.”

Subsidy allocations have fluctuated significantly: 695.6 MDH in 2024, far below the 2.4 billion dirhams (MMDH) in 2023, 9.3 MMDH in 2022, and 885.4 MDH in 2021. Cumulatively, subsidies from 2021 through May 2025 totaled 12.7 MMDH.

According to ONICL, the total subsidy allocation amounts to 14 MMDH, distributed as follows: 4 MMDH for the 2021–2022 import season, 8 MMDH for 2022–2023, 1 MMDH for 2023–2024, 783 MDH for 2024–2025, and 256 MDH for 2025–2026. Of this total, 300 MDH remains pending payment.

Current subsidy arrears owed to traders primarily relate to amounts accrued during Q4 2024 and 2025. Payment delays stem from documentation submission lags—traders typically file claims with ONICL three months post-shipment, after first selling imported goods and compiling required commercial proofs.

Strategic Cereal Reserve Stock Project Progresses Slowly

In a grain market heavily reliant on geopolitical uncertainties, precautionary measures are essential to mitigate potential disruptions. Morocco has recognized this need by planning the creation of a strategic soft wheat reserve.  

The National Interprofessional Office for Cereals and Legumes (ONICL) initiated a subsidy program from February 1 to April 30, 2024, to build a permanent stock of 8 million quintals (800,000 tonnes) of imported soft wheat, later extending the initiative through December 2025.  

Two months later, in March 2024, the National Federation of Cereal and Legume Traders (FNCL), affiliated with Morocco’s General Confederation of Enterprises (CGEM), commissioned a study to establish a strategic cereal reserve. This aims to address low domestic production, heavy import dependence, and international price volatility.  

The goal is to create a reserve ensuring Morocco’s autonomy for 4-6 months, adjustable to state requirements.  

Current project status remains unclear. Omar Yacoubi states: “Discussions with ONICL continue regarding potential safety stock configurations. While dialogue persists, tangible progress remains limited.”  

Moulay Abdelkader Alaoui, President of the National Milling Federation, reveals Morocco currently maintains stocks slightly exceeding three months. “Given substantial European market surpluses driving significant price declines, we anticipate aggressive Moroccan trader imports in coming months,” he predicts.  

“This will boost strategic reserves. During COVID-19, we achieved 5-6 months’ coverage. We aim to replicate this during the current import cycle,” Alaoui adds.