Future of Migration: Europe-Africa Dynamics

Migration between Europe and Africa is a strategic challenge shaped by demographic disparities, climate change, and historical ties. Europe faces critical issues associated with an ageing population and economic stagnation, where by 2050, one in three Europeans will be over 65, leading to a projected shrinkage of nearly 50 million working-age individuals. In contrast, Africa is experiencing a significant youth bulge, with over 60% of its population under 25 and 12 million youths entering the labor market annually, yet only 3 million formal jobs are created, driving many to seek opportunities in Europe. Climate change exacerbates this scenario, with the International Organization for Migration estimating that up to 85 million people may be displaced in sub-Saharan Africa by 2050 due to its impacts on food and water security. There is a pressing need for pragmatic cooperation between the two continents, with Europe encouraged to invest in Africa’s infrastructure and development to stabilize borders and reduce migration pressures. A new compact that creates selective migration policies, encourages temporary migration, and fosters job creation and education in Africa is essential. Current strategies, particularly the controversial role of North African countries as buffer zones, raise significant human rights concerns and fail to address the root causes of migration. A realist approach to leadership and policy-making that aligns national interests is needed to enable a managed migration system, recognizing the benefits of cooperation and addressing the underlying issues driving migration.

Source: Policy Center for the New South